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Extension of 2003 OTM risk assessment

Wednesday 25 August 2004

Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London.

Introduction

• Aim is to assess impact of changes to OTM rule on human exposure in period 2004- 2009
• Previous assessment used 5,000 future vCJD deaths as pessimistic scenario (published in Ferguson & Donnelly etc)
• Used 'worst- case' scenario approach
• Predictions from clinical cases suggest much lower risk
• Results from survey of lymphoreticular tissues suggest higher risk
• Extended work integrates BSE modelling and vCJD data to estimate the probabilities associated with numbers of vCJD cases arising from infection in the period 2004- 2009

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